This is a post by @hoosie, using an alt-account. This is an update on a tribe token experiment I started on the 10th of Nov 23. This experiment is designed to use a number of techniques to see if its possible to grow an account fairly organically, including:
- Delegating tokens to tribe curation accounts,
- Delegating HP to curation accounts that provide drips in the target tribe tokens,
- Via posting experiment updates in the relevant tribe accounts,
- And by using portfolio rebalancing (inspired by the XV token project from @spinvest which uses portfolio rebalancing to take profits).
I've also started to use Inleo for posting updates, as that should also provide a small boost to the amount of LEO token income, which is one of the 8 targeted tokens in the experiment.
You can check out the initial post that explains it all here.
Rebalance Update
This is a standard update following a rebalance of the account. ** If you want the short version - skip to the summary section (section 10) at the bottom !**
1 - Starting Position (change in basket value since the last rebalance before doing anything)
The table above shows the starting position for this rebalance, the new number of tokens (before the rebalance is undertaken, and spare HIVE is sold to buy more tokens). The table also shows the new token price, value and percentage weight of the tokens in the basket.
The additional tokens gained came from a combination of:
- Tips made in the comments of the previous rebalance post (0.2 ALIVE !),
- Tribe tokens gained from tagging the relevant tribes in the previous rebalance post (using the tags; #leofinance, #aliveandthriving, #pimp, #pob, #cent, #neoxian, #inleo, #hive-engine, #tribes, #hive) - there were noticeable increases across POB, CENT and NEOXAG which could have been from tagging (or curation payouts for delegation),
- And, tokens gained from delegation of the tribe tokens held. This worked OK - two of the accounts didnt payout.
As can be seen in the table above, the basket value has increased by just short of one HIVE since the last rebalance. Now that may not sound like much, but so many layer-2 tokens have been taking such a kicking of late that I was actually expecting a loss, so I'm more than happy to take a gain. In fact there were gains across 4 tokens - LEO (25.65%), BEE (0.80%), POB (16.66%) and NEOXAG (3.56%) since the last rebalance. The LEO and POB gains really helped, and this is exactly what we are hoping for, for the rebalance method to work. You take profit from the tokens that have gained, and re-invest it into the tokens that have dropped in price, such that you are hopefully buying them at a discount price. As the project progresses, you are then hoping for the range of tokens to go up and down with the markets, repeating the process of selling and buying.
2 - HP Delegations
In the future, there may also be some income from HP Delegation. I now have enough HP on the account to delegate. The aim is to keep 10 clear HP for transaction purposes, and then delegate everything else to accounts that also payout on the target tribe tokens. I had 3 spare HP this week so started with a delegation to @leo.voter. I've picked that account due to how well LEO is currently doing. Having some more liquid LEO for each rebalance would be really helpful. Now I dont even know if 3 HP delegated is enough to get any income, but it will build up over time and you have to start somewhere - also noting that the aim of this experiment is to fund itself. So lets see what happens !
The table below summarises the planned delegations and accounts to be used:
Only 6 of the 8 curation accounts paid out in the period. This has been the case for the last 3 rebalances, so I'm likely to undelegate for the ones that are no longer working and see if I can find other useful delegation accounts for those instead.
3 - New swap.hive to invest
As this experiment is only about the 8 noted tokens, all other income and tokens were sold for swap.hive to be re-invested in the tribe tokens. This came from:
- 50% of the previous week's post payout in HBD was sold for HIVE, which was higher than normal brining in 3.372 HIVE,
- And, selling off other layer-2 tokens, of which there were a few to sell (for not much value - but again it all counts).
That gave a new basket balance of:
4 - Rebalance Calculation
The 'total value to rebalance' figure from above was then used to calculate the new number of tokens that should be held in the basket, if spread evenly across all 8 tokens - see table below. The column second from the right titled 'difference from above' states how many existing tokens need to be sold (if the number is negative) and how many new tokens need to be bought (if the number is positive).
If tokens need to be sold, then it means that token price has done well in the period, and the rebalance acts to effectively take profit from the gain in that token's value in the period, so that it can be used to buy more of one of the other tokens that has had poor price performance in the period (ie, to buy more tokens at a bargain price).
The table above also shows the price change in the period. LEO was over allocated due to its increasing price so I sold what liquid I had to fund purchases, along with a small amount of BEE. I then bought ALIVE, PIMP, CENT and CTP as they were all under-allocated and available at good prices. I am worried about whether ALIVE and CTP are still functioning or not, but I gave both the benefit of the doubt and went ahead with purchases (it wasnt for much value anyway, so no real problem).
5 - Actual Rebalance Result
As guided by the table above, the following action was then taken:
- Sold tokens that needed to be sold,
- Bought tokens that needed to be bought.
N.B. Due to the time it takes to un-stake tokens (if needing to be sold), and the difference in buy and sell prices, it may not always be possible to rebalance the basket exactly as planned (and that certainly was the case again in this period). Although over time it will average out, so that it should not be too far out. And as the curation income grows, so too will the liquid amounts available each period, at which point the rebalancing will work better. As such, the following table presents the totals after undertaking the actual rebalance, with the aim of trying to get as close as possible to the planned rebalance numbers.
From there - all tokens were staked, and delegated to the noted accounts.
As can be seen, the extra funds from the previous post payout really helped to allow more tokens to be bought during the rebalance, with some nice token gains for ALIVE, PIMP, CENT and CTP.
That completes the rebalance process for this period.
6 - Summaries
The following table presents the summary for this rebalance:
The following table presents the summary from the start of the project:
So it was nice to clock up another gain since the last rebalance (considering that I thought it would be a loss due to all the layer-2 problems of late).
**7 - Method Assessment **
The table above attempts to summarise how the various methods have worked in the period, and rank them in order from best to worst (top to bottom). Its hard to capture the exact values from each method making a contribution, but it gives a rough idea of how its all working.
- The previous post payout dominated the gains, followed by the change in the basket value which was nice to see (in other words, the rebalance method doing its job).
8 - Change in Basket Value
So this rebalance chalked up quite a nice gain considering, and brought the basket back to the second highest value that its ever been at. It also allowed a nice number of tokens to be purchased at low prices, so it really was a successful rebalance.
I've also added some additional info to the table above (the new right hand column). It analyses each rebalance to show what the main reason for the change was (whether for a loss or a gain). I've done that to provide additional insight as to whats working best to help guide future rebalances.
9 - Gain/Loss Assessment
I've then used the loss/gain information from section 8 and summarised it in the table above to help get an even better view of how its all working. The only thing that will ever lead to a loss is a reduction in token values. The rebalance method actually needs that to happen because it makes value from the fluctuation in the market. So thats ok as long as the tokens dont drop substantially or go to the wall. Currently there are two tokens of concern on that front - CTP and ALIVE. However, these are good projects and I've heard that someone has taken over CTP, so hopefully that will come back to form. ALIVE also has other people involved and seems to still be working on a number of fronts, so hopefully it will come good.
On the increases, it can be seen that post payouts have made the biggest difference to date, which is no surprise when the overall fund value is low. However, token increases via the rebalance method is catching up, and should take over as the fund size grows. The other methods (curation, delegation and tagging) are not really making a big difference yet, but again as the number of tokens grow, then they should start impacting more - it will just take some time.
10 - Summary
So I was quite surprised to clock up a gain for this rebalance. The nice post payout really helped to buy quite a few more tokens. It was also great to delegate some HP for the first time, even if very little. HP delegation is the final income method that should contribute as part of this experiment and to date I havent had enough HP on the account to do start doing it, so thats why I'm quite happy about it.
It was also nice to undertake the additional loss/gain analysis for the first time as that helps to understand whats going on more. Its actually made me think more about the rebalances. To date I've undertook them when I've had time, but for them to be more effective I should undertake them when the market conditions are most favourable. It would mean I'd have to spend more time monitoring prices, but it would lead to additional gains. While I'm short on time I would struggle to do that, but we'll see what happens in the future.
That wraps up this rebalance. Heres looking forward to the next rebalance already !
Details about my alt-account
This is a post by @hoosie, writing on an alt-account that I setup purely by accident when I didnt know what I was doing during my first few weeks on the Hive blockchain ! I thought I was getting an actifit account for my main hive account, and instead bought an entirely new actifit hive account, that I've rarely used ! I have used this account for the experiment because it basically had zero value in it (well about 1-2 HP worth), and importantly very little layer 2 tokens, and hence it acts as a clean slate to properly track progress for this experiment.
Requests to be tagged in the report
If you want to be tagged in the report so that you know when a new one comes out, let me know:
@fantagira, @tydynrain, @shanibeer, @new.things
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
