That's 7 times I won my bets and 6 times I lost. I am fully prepared to not win or even lose money this year in this experiment because I started this thing, and I am going to finish it. I also don't bet a tremendous amount of money so it doesn't really matter and it makes watching the games more interesting to me because the Panthers are my favorite team and therefore if they do well, or especially if they win, I am happy either way.
The Philly Eagles (my most hated team in the NFL) were favored by 14 points in this game and this is understandable since they are first in their division and have already clinched a playoff spot with a record of 11-2. The Panthers on the other hand are 3-10 , with the 10 being the losses of course, and not many people were really considering them a serious contender for actually winning this game.
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I expected to see a lot more of the above than I actually did in this game because Philly has what it takes in both the air and on the ground, particularly with incredible Saquon Barkley who is regularly pulling down 100+ yards per game and seems to be a go-to for 5 or more yards on nearly every possession.
So the Eagles won the game, but not by nearly the margin that the world expected and even though it resulted in my losing of money, I was happy to see the Panthers make very few mistakes and actually look like a competent football time for the 4th week in a row.
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Let me tell you a little something about the above: Had it not been for that hiccup in the 2nd where the Panthers briefly went back in time to suck-ville where they just looked like they couldn't prevent something the size of a Ford F-150 from finding a hole in the defense, the Panthers actually looked like the better team on the field. But before anyone gets too excited the reason for this has almost everything to do with a single solitary receiver.
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Bryce Young and Adam Thielen seem to have some sort of mind meld on the field and have amazing chemistry. Although there was only 9 receptions involving the two, the Eagles seemed to pick up rather rapidly when the Panthers would line up for an obvious pass play, that Thielen was the intended recipient. Therefore this, over time, becomes increasingly easy to shut down. It's kind of like if you were playing the Chicago Bulls in the last play of the 4th quarter during a clutch Chicago Bulls inbound. You know they are going to pass to Michael Jordan.
One thing I found kind of amusing about this game watching it live is that the Panthers were actually leading and looking like they just might hang onto that in the start of the 2nd and halfway through the 3rd quarter. Yet the online gambling sentiment for live betting still stood solidly on a Philadelphia victory.
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The mood was so sincerely certain that Philly would get a W here that on the day of the game straight bets on the Eagles were -800 and eventually moved to -1000. When you reach -1000 it means that the bookies are no longer accepting straight bets on a team at all.
From what I have read this is determined by the amount of bets that are already on that team because often, and I am sure this will surprise a lot of people (joke), the odds in Vegas and other sportsbooks are always in the favor of the house, it is a mathematical certainty and the odds and spreads constantly change in order to influence betting behavior so that regardless of the outcome, the house will always win.
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I think the bookies and casinos got a bit worried about the fact that nearly 100% of bets were on a straight win call for the Eagles and therefore after a certain point, presumably the 19% overall money bet on the Panthers, they cut off all bets for that category entirely.
My system of betting against Carolina on the spread appears to not be such a rock-solid system anymore because as one commentator during the game put it, "a game against Carolina is no longer a "gimme," they are going to make you work for it." This is good to see as a fan because since they still have a terrible record they are going to be doing well as far as draft picks are concerned. I am hopeful they will do something about their rushing game, because that is almost non-existent at the moment. It would be a lot easier for Bryce Young to open up some passing lanes if it was basically assumed that nearly every play is going to be a passing play, which at the moment anyway, is what nearly every down is at this point.
Credit where credit is due though, Carolina has managed to work out a system of beating their way down the field to allow one of the busiest field-goal kickers in the league, Eddy Pinero, to knock down basically anything inside 50 yards. He has the 2nd highest conversion rate in the entire NFL and well, that is probably one of the only stats that Carolina has that is actually good.
The Panthers have Dallas at home next week and I can't believe I am reading this but Carolina is actually FAVORED to win in that game as of the Vegas lines right now. I am going to stick to the script though, and bet against them on the 2.5 point line.
What do you think?
